In brief
The September 21 QuaestBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ poll shows Lula 37% to 33% over Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round and a technical tie in the runoff, with Flávio 42% and Lula 41%.
Rejection of both exceeds 55%.
What we know
06Verified fact · material
The poll interviewed 2,004 voters in person between September 17 and 20, has a 2-point margin, 95% confidence and TSE registration BR-06004/2026.
Methodology comparable to previous QuaestBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ rounds.
Verified fact
According to Seu Dinheiro, in the September 14 round Lula had 36% and Flávio 31% in the first round; the gap narrowed from 5 to 4 points.
Shows the narrowing trend.
Sources[04]Verified fact
According to Bloomberg Línea, the BTG/Nexus poll released the same day, with 2,006 interviews between September 18 and 20, shows Lula 46% and Flávio 45% in the runoff and 40% to 37% in the first round.
A second poll the same day converges on a technical tie.
Sources[05]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
A technical tie in the runoff two weeks before the election keeps the political risk premium in long rates and the exchange rate, with the market lacking a clear signal of fiscal policy continuity or change.
Convergence with BTG/Nexus reduces the chance of an outlier reading.
Portfolio impact
02A technical tie keeps the electoral risk premium without a defined direction.
Elevated volatility until the first round.
What would change the view: New polls confirming or breaking the tie.
High rejection of both leaders limits a rally on either side.
Stocks react more to surprises than to the tie.
What would change the view: Movement of undecided voters in the final two weeks.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- DatafolhaBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ and QuaestBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ in the final week before the first round
- Reaction of the long end and the exchange rate at the September 22 open
- Debates and campaign events until October 4
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- Coverage does not detail the breakdown by region and income.
- The TSE registration of the BTG/Nexus poll is not in the Bloomberg Línea coverage.