In brief
BTGBTG PactualOrganizationLatin America's largest investment bank, listed on B3 as BPAC11, with asset management, credit, distressed asset recovery via Enforce and control of media outlets such as Exame and Money Times.Open in the Market Map ↗/Nexus shows Lula with 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 44% in the runoff, a statistical tie.
In the first round, Lula leads by five points.
What we know
04Verified fact · material
In the BTGBTG PactualOrganizationLatin America's largest investment bank, listed on B3 as BPAC11, with asset management, credit, distressed asset recovery via Enforce and control of media outlets such as Exame and Money Times.Open in the Market Map ↗/Nexus poll, Lula has 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro 44% in a possible runoff.
Measures the decisive race.
Verified fact · material
The poll interviewed 2,000 voters between September 25 and 27, with a two-point margin of error, and was commissioned by Banco BTG PactualBTG PactualOrganizationLatin America's largest investment bank, listed on B3 as BPAC11, with asset management, credit, distressed asset recovery via Enforce and control of media outlets such as Exame and Money Times.Open in the Market Map ↗, with registration BR-07557/2026.
Qualifies the methodology and sponsor.
Verified fact
According to Money Times, in the first round Lula has 42% and Flávio 37%, and 87% of those naming a candidate say they will not change their vote.
Shows the first-round scenario.
Sources[03]Verified fact
According to Money Times, government approval is 46% and disapproval 49%.
Gives context on government approval.
Sources[03]
Transmission to assets
Market read-through
The runoff tie keeps the election open and reinforces volatility in local assets in the last week of the campaign, with the market sensitive to each new poll.
Portfolio impact
01Runoff tie keeps election uncertainty.
Effect depends on other polls.
What would change the view: Next polls confirming the tie.
Direction is an explanatory hypothesis, not a forecast or recommendation.
Next signals
What to watch
- New QuaestBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗, DatafolhaBrazil's 2026 electionsThemeThe October 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and the polls that measure it, the source of the electoral premium in equities, the currency and rates.Open in the Market Map ↗ and AtlasIntel polls
- TV Globo debate
- First round on October 4
Limits of the reporting
What remains uncertain
- The poll was commissioned by a bank with market interests; first-round figures come from a single editorial group.